Impact of uncertainty of dose values after single radiation exposure on prognosis of radiation risks of solid cancers in the Russian population calculated with ICRP models

«Radiation and Risk», 2013, vol. 22, No. 4, pp.8-13

Authors

Ivanov V.K. – Chairman of RSCRP, Deputy Director, Corresponding Member of RAMS, Medical Radiological Research Center of the Russian Ministry of Health, Obninsk.
Chekin S.Yu. – Senior Researcher, Medical Radiological Research Center of the Russian Ministry of Health, Obninsk. Contacts: 4 Korolyov str., Obninsk, Kaluga region, Russia, 249036. Tel.: (48439) 9-30-79; e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. .
Kashcheev V.V.* – Senior Researcher, C. Sc., Biol., Medical Radiological Research Center of the Russian Ministry of Health, Obninsk.
Maksioutov M.A. – Head of Lab., C. Sc., Tech., Medical Radiological Research Center of the Russian Ministry of Health, Obninsk.
Korelo A.M. – Lead. Programmer, Medical Radiological Research Center of the Russian Ministry of Health, Obninsk.
Menyaylo A.N. – Research Assistant, Medical Radiological Research Center of the Russian Ministry of Health, Obninsk.

Abstract

Impact of statistical dispersion of radiation dose values, as well as dose and dose rate effectiveness factor (DDREF) on prognosis of radiation risks calculated with ICRP models for Russian population after single exposure to radiation is discussed in the article. Mean values of predicted radiation risks are shown to be biased if sources of the dispersion are taken into account. The main source of uncertainty is DDREF. Calculation of different sources of statistical dispersion including DDREF with its mean value 2.0, may result in 6-fold reduction of mean value of predicted risk of solid cancers. Such effect may be caused by inappropriate adjustment of ICRP risk models to Russian population.

Key words
Radiation risk, dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor, uncertainty of dose, single exposure to radiation.

References

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