RADIATION & RISK
Bulletin of the National Radiation and Epidemiological Registry
since 1992
About the Journal : 2013 : vol. 22, No. 3 : Effect of uncertainty of baseline incidence rates on estimating radiation risks with ICRP models for Russian populations following single exposure to radiation

Effect of uncertainty of baseline incidence rates on estimating radiation risks with ICRP models for Russian populations following single exposure to radiation

«Radiation and Risk», 2013, vol. 22, No. 3, pp.40-56

Authors

Ivanov V.K. – Chairman of RSCRP, Deputy Director, Corresponding Member of RAMS, Medical Radiological Research Center of the Russian Ministry of Health, Obninsk.
Chekin S.Yu. – Senior Researcher, Medical Radiological Research Center of the Russian Ministry of Health, Obninsk.
Kashcheev V.V.* – Senior Researcher, C. Sc., Biol., Medical Radiological Research Center of the Russian Ministry of Health, Obninsk.Contacts: 4 Korolyov str., Obninsk, Kaluga region, Russia, 249036. Tel.: (48439) 9-30-79; e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. .
Gorsky A.I. – Lead. Researcher, C. Sc., Tech., Medical Radiological Research Center of the Russian Ministry of Health, Obninsk.
Maksioutov M.A. – Head of Lab., C. Sc., Tech., Medical Radiological Research Center of the Russian Ministry of Health, Obninsk.
Korelo A.M. – Lead. Programmer, Medical Radiological Research Center of the Russian Ministry of Health, Obninsk.
Menyaylo A.N. – Research Assistant, Medical Radiological Research Center of the Russian Ministry of Health, Obninsk.

Abstract

Effect of uncertainty of baseline incidence rates on estimating radiation risks with ICRP models for Russian populations following single exposure to radiation was studied. Statistical scatter of baseline rates of solid cancer incidence per 200,000 person-years (population of a small town followed for 5 years) gives relative increase in a mean value of risk by 1.6% and relative increase of standard error in radiation risks estimates by 15.5%; for 500,000 person-years (population of a town followed for 5 years) gives increase in a mean value of risk by 1% and increase of standard error in radiation risks estimates by 6.6%. Statistical scatter of baseline rates of solid cancer incidence per 5,000,000 person-years (population of an oblast, followed 5 years) can be neglected.

Key words
Radiation risk, uncertainty of risk estimates, single exposure to radiation.

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Full-text article (in Russian)