Dynamics of major parameters of malignancy incidence and mortality among the population living on contaminated areas of Kaluga region

"Radiation and Risk", 1994, vol. 4, pp. 113-120


Efendiev V.A.1, Ivanov V.K., Biryukov A.P., Matveenko E.G., Leshakov S.Yu.1,Maksyutov M.A., Nilova E.V.
Medical Radiological Research Center of RAMS, Obninsk
1 Department of Health Care of Kaluga region administration, Kaluga


Parameters of malignancy incidence and mortality were studied in 24 rayons of Kaluga region, 9 of which had contamination levels from 1 to 15 Ci/km2. The contaminated areas are develled by 240 thousand people and 370 thousand live in uncontaminated areas. For statistical analysis an original software package was used which predictions with the ARIMA autoregression model using the Box-Jenkins procedure. The rates at which the incidence and mortality increase in the contaminated areas of the region have been found to be higher similar values for Russia in geral. In some cases, the incidence and mortality in the contaminated areas are higher those in the uncontaminated and show a tendency for growth. By estimation, malignancy incidence for some localizations may increase by 1995.

Key words
Incidence and mortality rates, malignant neoplasms, contaminated, areas of Kaluga region, statistical analysis, incidence rate.


1. Bulbulyan M.A., Tokareva G.D. Bulletin of the Academy of Medical Sciences of the USSR. 1990. N 7. p. 59-63.

2. Bulbulyan M.A., Tsyb A.F., Tokareva G.D., Shevchenko V.N. Malignant neoplasms in selected territories: Sat. scientific tr. St. Petersburg, 1991. p. 181-190.

3. Dvoirin V.V., Axel E.M. Questions of Oncology. 1988. Vol. 34, No. 7. PP. 793-798.

4. Dvoirin V.V., Ozerova T.M., Gulaya V.I., Maksimov V.P. Questions of Oncology. 1990. Vol. 36, No. 2. PP. 145-158.

5. Dvoirin V.V., Axel E.M., Urbanovich L. L. Questions of Oncology. 1990. Vol. 36, No. 7. PP. 792-804.

6. Dvoirin V.V., Starinsky V.V., Trapeznikov N.N. Information support for the planning and evaluation of the Russian anti-cancer program. M .: ONT RAMS, 1992. p. 154.

7. Dvoirin V.V., Axel E.M., Barmina N.M. Condition of oncological assistance to the population of Russia and some other CIS countries in 1992 M., 1993. P. 124.

8. Zaridze DG, Lee N.A., Men T.H. Med. radiology. 1993. No. 11. PP. 24-28.

9. Beebe G.W. Cancer Invest. [CAI]. 1988. Vol. 6, No. 4. PP. 417-426.

10. Jwasaki T., Murata M. Book of abstracts international conference on high levels of natural radiation. Teheran, 1990. PP. 123-124.

11. Paratzke H.G. Risk estimates for radiation carcinogenesis. Koeln, 1990. PP. 55-58.

Full text article (in Russian)