RADIATION & RISK
Bulletin of the National Radiation and Epidemiological Registry
since 1992
About the Journal : 2026 : vol. 35, No. 2 : Lifetime prognosis of mortality radiation risks among participants in the consequences of the Chernobyl accident

Lifetime prognosis of mortality radiation risks among participants in the consequences of the Chernobyl accident

«Radiation and Risk», 2026, vol. 35, No. 2, pp.110-127

DOI: 10.21870/0131-3878-2026-35-2-110-127

Authors

Chekin S.Yu. – Head of Lab.
Menyajlo A.N. – Lead. Researcher, C. Sc., Biol. Contacts: 4 Korolyov str., Obninsk, Kaluga region, Russia, 249035; e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. .
Maksioutov M.A. – Head of Dep., C. Sc., Tech.
Tumanov K.А. – Head of Lab., C. Sc., Biol.
Gorski A.I. – Lead. Researcher, C. Sc., Tech.
Karpenko S.V. – Engineer
Lashkova O.E. – Researcher
Ivanov V.K. – Scientific Advisor of NRER, Chairman of RSCRP, Corr. Member of RAS, D. Sc., Tech.
Ivanov S.A. – Director, Corr. Member of RAS, MD, Prof. of RUDN University Dep. A. Tsyb MRRC.
Kaprin A.D. – General Director, Director of P. Hertsen MORI, Head of RUDN University Dep., Academician of RAS, MD, Prof. NMRRC.
1 A. Tsyb MRRC, Obninsk
2 Peoples' Friendship University of Russia named after Patrice Lumumba, Moscow
3 NMRRC, Obninsk
4 P. Hertsen MORI, Moscow

Abstract

In accordance with the provisions of Federal Law No. 329-FZ dated December 30, 2012, one of the main tasks of the National Radiation and Epidemiological Registry (NRER) state information system is to predict the medical radiological consequences of the Chernobyl accident, including long-term consequences. The purpose of this study is to assess the degree of conservativeness of the radiation risk models identified in the NRER studies for the Russian cohort of liquidators, compared with the models recommended by the ICRP, the UNSCEAR and the American-Japanese Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) for solving radiation protection problems at the global level. A comparative analysis of the projected mortality radiation risks calculated using the NRER models and reputable international organizations has shown that conservative (highest) estimates of lifetime mortality radiation risks from solid malignant neoplasms, diseases of the circulatory system and respiratory diseases are provided by NRER models, and for mortality radiation risks from leukemia (excluding cases of chronic lymphocytic leukemia) – UNSCEAR models. The conservative estimate of the lifetime radiation risk of mortality from solid malignant neoplasms in the cohort of liquidators (according to the NRER model) is 1.7 times higher than the estimate obtained for the same cohort using the nominal radiation risk of mortality of the ICRP. For mortality from leukemia, the conservative estimate of lifetime radiation risk (according to the UNSCEAR model) is 1.4 times higher than the estimate obtained using the corresponding nominal risk coefficient of the ICRP. Further research from the point of view of application to the tasks of radiation protection in emergency situations requires a lifetime radiation risk of mortality from non-oncological diseases, which is 2.3 times higher than the corresponding risk for malignant neoplasms. Thus, for the Russian cohort of liquidators, the nominal coefficients of radiation mortality risks of the ICRP, laid down in the foundations of radiation safety standards, significantly underestimate the severity of the long-term radiological consequences of the Chernobyl accident.

Key words
Chernobyl accident, liquidators, absorbed dose, mortality, solid malignant neoplasms, leukemia, diseases of the circulatory system, diseases of the digestive system, diseases of the respiratory system, diseases of the blood, lifetime attributable risk, public health.

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Full-text article (in Russian)