Research of modern models of radiation risks from UNSCEAR, ICRP and WHO at their application for assessment of radiation risks in emergency exposure situations

«Radiation and Risk», 2020, vol. 29, No. 2, pp.5-20

DOI: DOI: 10.21870/0131-3878-2020-29-2-5-20


Chekin S.Yu. – Head of Lab.Contacts: 4 Korolyov str., Obninsk, Kaluga region, Russia, 249035. Tel.: (484) 399-30-79; e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. .
Lovachev S.S. – Research Assistant
Kashcheeva P.V. – Senior Researcher; C. Sc., Biol.
Kashcheev V.V. – Head of Lab., C. Sc., Biol.
Maksioutov M.A. – Head of Dep., C. Sc., Tech.
Vlasov O.K. – Head of Lab., D.Sc., Tech.
Shchukina N.V. – Senior Researcher. A. Tsyb MRRC.

A. Tsyb MRRC, Obninsk.


According to the current Russian OSPORB, the indicator of radiation risk is one of key indicators of radiation safety establishments, where radioactive substances and other sources of ionizing radiation are used. The IAEA BSS and Russian NRB-99/2009 require that individual radiation risks for emergency workers should be estimated. However, neither the Russian nor international normative documents contain recommendations what radiation risk assessment models should be used for these purposes. This article presents comparative analysis of applicability of current models of radiation risks intensity recommended by UNSCEAR, ICRP and WHO to predict risk values in case of radiation emergency situations. Radiation risks should be estimated on the basis of the general principle of conservativity, with account of the following statements. To predict risks in case of ra-diation emergency exposure to doses above 50 mSv, unmodified models of radiation risks intensity developed by UNSCEAR, ICRP and WHO with the use of radiation epidemiological data following single acute radiation exposure should be used. Comparative analysis of current radiation risks models demonstrates that for people who do not attain the age of 85 years the most conservative predictive estimates can be obtained with the use of the DDREF-free ICRP models or with the use of WHO models, both options give practically the same forecast. In men with attained age younger than 49 years the most conservative predicted risk of leukaemia is obtained with ICRP models. For men older than 49 years – with UNSCEAR and WHO models.

Key words
radiation risk, emergency exposure, equivalent dose, model of intensity of radiation risk, excess absolute risk, excess relative risk, attributive radiation fraction, transfer of risk between populations, DDREF, solid cancers, leukemia.


1. Basic Sanitary Rules for Radiation Safety (OSPORB-99/2010). Health regulations, SP Moscow, Center for Sanitary and Epidemiological Rationing, Hygienic Certification of Russian Ministry of Health, 2010. (In Russian).

2. Preparedness and response in case of a nuclear or radiological emergency. General safety requirements No. GSR Part 7. Vienna, IAEA, 2016. 120 p. (In Russian).

3. Radiation protection and safety of radiation sources. International Basic Safety Standards. General safety requirements. Series of standards of safety of IAEA No. GSR Part 3. Vienna, IAEA, 2015. 311 p. (In Russian).

4. Publication 103 International Commissions on Radiation Protection (ICRP). Eds.: M.F. Kiselyov and N.K. Shandala. Moscow, Prod. LLC PKF Alana, 2009. 312 p. (In Russian).

5. United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR). Sources and effects of ionizing radiation. UNSCEAR 2006 Report Vol. I, Annex A: Epidemiological studies of radiation and cancer. New York, United Nation, 2008. 314 p.

6. Health risk assessment from the nuclear accident after the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami based on a preliminary dose estimation. Geneva, WHO, 2013. 172 p.

7. Ozasa K., Shimizu Y., Suyama A., Kasagi F., Soda M., Grant E.J., Sakata R., Sugiyama H., Kodama K. Studies of the mortality of atomic bomb survivors, Report 14, 1950-2003: an overview of cancer and noncancer diseases. Radiat. Res., 2012, vol. 177, no. 3, pp. 229-243.

8. Radiation Safety Standards (RSS-99/2009). Sanitary-epidemiological rules and standards. Moscow, Federal Center of Hygiene and Epidemiology of Rospotrebnadzor, 2009. 100 p. (In Russian).

9. Preston D.L., Kusumi S., Tomonaga M., Izumi S., Ron E., Kuramoto A., Kamada N., Dohy H., Matsuo T., Nonaka H., Thompson D.E., Soda M., Mabuchi K. Cancer incidence in atomic bomb survivors. Part III: Leukemia, lymphoma and multiple myeloma, 1950-1987. Radiat. Res., 1994, vol. 137, no. 2, pp. S68-S97.

10. Malignant neoplasms in Russia in 2014 (morbidity and mortality). Eds.: A.D. Kaprin, V.V. Starinskiy, G.V. Petrova. Moscow, Р. Hertsen MORI, 2016. 250 p. (In Russian).

11. Ivanov V.K., Korelo A.M., Chekin S. Yu., Panfilov A.P., Mikheenko S. G., Usoltcev V.Yu. Risk-based approach to optimization of the radiological protection of group A personnel of the State Corporation Rosatom: formation of critical groups. Radiatsiya i risk – Radiation and Risk, 2017, vol. 26, noю 3, pp. 19-27. (In Russian).

12. Menyajlo A.N., Chekin S.Yu., Kashcheev V.V., Maksioutov М.А., Korelo A.M., Tumanov K.A., Pryakhin E.A., Lovachev S.S., Karpenko S.V., Kashcheeva P.V., Ivanov V.K. Lifetime attributable risks from exter-nal and internal exposure to radiation: method for estimating. Radiatsiya i risk – Radiation and Risk, 2018, vol. 27, no. 1, pp. 8-21. (In Russian).

Full-text article (in Russian)