Screening for thyroid cancer among children and adolescents of Bryansk oblast and Fukushima Prefecture as a factor increasing the disease incidence rate

«Radiation and Risk», 2019, vol. 28, No. 4, pp.31-43

DOI: 10.21870/0131-3878-2019-28-4-31-43


Kashcheev V.V. – Head of Lab., C. Sc., Biol.
Pryakhin E.A. – Researcher. Contacts: 4 Korolyov str., Obninsk, Kaluga region, 249035, Russia. Tel: (484) 399-32-81;
e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. .
Menyajlo A.N. – Lead. Researcher, C. Sc., Biol.
Kochergina E.V. – Head of Lab., C. Sc., Med.
Korelo A.M. – Senior Researcher
Tumanov K.А. – Head of Lab., C. Sc., Biol.
Ivanov V.K. – Deputy Director, Chairman of RSCRP, Corresponding Member of RAS

A. Tsyb MRRC, Obninsk.


The article continues research on radiation risks and screening effect in childhood thyroid cancer in the Bryansk oblast in Russia and Fukushima Prefecture in Japan. The subjects of the study are people exposed to radiation at the age under 18 years old. The Bryansk cohort under study included about 78729 children and adolescents (at time of exposure), resided in the mostly contaminated with radionuclides areas. Average radiation dose to the thyroid was 218 mGy, maximum dose was 4.48 Gy. For the follow-up period lasted from 1.01.1991 to 31.12.2013 300 thyroid cancer cases were detected. According to demographic information, from 78729 children and adolescents exposed to radiation 20577 people lived in the areas of iodine deficiency, among them 121 thyroid cancer cases were detected. For more than 25 years after the Chernobyl accident radiation risk of thyroid cancer has remained significant, it depends on the age at exposure and attained age (ERR/Gy=4.28; 95% CI: 2.24; 7.19; p<0.001). Screening for thyroid cancer was carried out among residents of the most contaminated with radionuclides areas. The results of the screening showed evident screening effect on radiation risk of thyroid cancer. The highest increase in detected thyroid cancers was at the first examinations carried out from 1991 to 1995 (ES=15.7; 95% CI: 10.7; 21.9; p<0.001). The results of screening for thyroid cancer in the Bryansk oblast were used for estimating the number of possible non-radiation induced thyroid cancers in the Fukushima cohort of people exposed to radiation at the age under 18 years old. Predicted and actual data on detected thyroid cancer cases are in agreement: it was predicted that during the preliminary basic screening in Fukushima Prefecture 123.2 (95% CI: 85.2; 164.0) thyroid cancer cases would be detected, in fact, 116 thyroid cancer cases were detected. The number of thyroid cancers detected during the second-round screening 64.0 (95% CI: 44.5; 85.1) would be detected, in fact, 68 thyroid cancer were detected.

Key words
Chernoby NPP, Fukushima, cohort study, thyroid cancer, population, excess relative risk, iodine deficiency, screening effect.


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