Radiation risk and screening effect of thyroid cancer incidence among the population of Bryansk and Orel oblasts of the Russian Federation

«Radiation and Risk», 2015, vol. 24, No. 1, pp.8-22

Authors

Kashcheev V.V. – Head of Lab., C. Sc., Biol. A. Tsyb MRRC, Obninsk.Contacts: 4 Korolyov str., Obninsk, Kaluga region, Russia, 249036. Tel.: (484) 399-32-45; e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Chekin S.Yu. – Head of Lab. A. Tsyb MRRC, Obninsk.
Maksioutov M.A. – Head of Lab., C. Sc., Tech., A. Tsyb MRRC, Obninsk.
Tumanov K.А. – Head of Lab., C. Sc., Biol., A. Tsyb MRRC, Obninsk.
Korelo A.M. – Senior Researcher, A. Tsyb MRRC, Obninsk.
Kochergina E.V. – Head of Lab., C. Sc., Med., A. Tsyb MRRC, Obninsk.
Vlasov O.K. – зHead of Lab., D.Sc., Tech., A. Tsyb MRRC, Obninsk.
Shchukina N.V. – Researcher, A. Tsyb MRRC, Obninsk.
Ivanov V.K. – Deputy Director, Chairman of RSCRP, Corresponding Member of RAS., A. Tsyb MRRC, Obninsk.

Abstract

This paper continues the investigation of the radiological consequences of the Chernobyl accident. The study presents a method of radiation risks estimation of cancer of the thyroid gland (thyroid cancer) taking into account an effect of screening among the population exposed to internal exposure. The cohort selected for analysis consists of 309130 people from most contaminated territories of Bryansk and Orel oblasts affected by the Chernobyl accident. Over the follow-up period 1992-2011, a total of 1034 thyroid cancer cases were identified as the result of annual compulsory health examination (272 cases among children and adolescents 0-17 y of age at the time of the accident and 762 cases among adults older than 18 y of age at the time of the accident). The excess relative risk per 1 Gy (ERR/1Gy) is found to be statistically significant only for children and adolescents at the time of the Chernobyl accident (ERR/1Gy=4.60; 95% CI: 2.22; 8.25; p<0.001). The study showed that radiation risk is significantly dependent on age at exposure and attained age. The high screening effect (ES) of thyroid cancer also is found to be and statistically significant (ES are 8.81 and 1.5 for children and adolescents and for group 18 years and older respectively). The screening effect is depended on calendar period and decrease by factor 2 since 1996 in comparison with the first period (1991-1995).

Key words
Chernobyl accident, territory contaminated with radionuclides, population, thyroid cancer, incidence of disease, excess relative risk, sensitivity, specificity, screening.

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