Lessons of Chernobyl and Fukushima: prognosis of radiological consequences

«Radiation and Risk», 2011, vol. 20, no. 3, pp.6-15

Authors

Ivanov V.K. – Chairman of RSCRP, Deputy Director, Corresponding Member of RAMS. Medical Radiological Research Center of the Russian Ministry of Health and Social Development, Obninsk. Contacts: 4 Korolyov str., Obninsk, Kaluga region, Russia, 249036. Tel.: +7 (495) 956-94-12, (48439) 9-33-90; e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. .
Kashcheev V.V. – Senior Researcher, C. Sc., Biol. Medical Radiological Research Center of the Russian Ministry of Health and Social Development, Obninsk.
Chekin S.Yu. – Senior Researcher. Medical Radiological Research Center of the Russian Ministry of Health and Social Development, Obninsk.
Korelo A.M. – Lead. Programmer. Medical Radiological Research Center of the Russian Ministry of Health and Social Development, Obninsk.
Menyaylo A.N. – Postgraduate Student. Medical Radiological Research Center of the Russian Ministry of Health and Social Development, Obninsk.
Maksioutov M.A. – Head of Laboratory, C. Sc., Tech. Medical Radiological Research Center of the Russian Ministry of Health and Social Development, Obninsk.
Gorsky A.I. – Lead. Researcher, C. Sc., Tech. Medical Radiological Research Center of the Russian Ministry of Health and Social Development, Obninsk.
Tumanov K.A. – Research Assistant. Medical Radiological Research Center of the Russian Ministry of Health and Social Development, Obninsk.
Pryakhin Eu.A. – Programmer. Medical Radiological Research Center of the Russian Ministry of Health and Social Development, Obninsk.

Abstract

The following three main questions are considered in the article. First, results of large-scale stu-dies of the National Radiation Epidemiological Registry for 25 years of follow-up after the accident at the Chernobyl NPP and summarized data on radiation risks for emergency accident workers and the population of the most contaminated with radionuclides territories of Russia. Second, verification of ICRP prognostic models (Publication 103) for estimating radiation risk with an allowance for data on the Chernobyl accident. And third, we give prognostic estimates of potential radiological consequences of the disaster at the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP with the use of the ICRP prognostic models.

Key words
Chernobyl accident, estimation of radiation risks, the 2007 ICRP recommendations, prognostic estimates of radiological consequences of the disaster at the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP.

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