Estimation of morbidity dynamics among emergency workers based on the results of the annual health examinations

"Radiation and Risk", 1996, vol. 8, pp. 38-46


Mikhalsky A.I., Ivanov V.K.1, Maksyutov M.A.1, Morgenstern W.2
Institute of Control Science of RAS, Moscow;
1 Medical Radiological Research Center of RAMS, Obninsk;
2 Geomedical Research Unit of Heidelberg Academy of Sciences, Heidelberg, Germany


The paper discusses development of a model estimating morbidity among emergency workers involved in mitigation works after the Chernobyl accident in 1986 with allowance for the fact that some of them underwent medical examination on irregular basis. This task has been shown to relate to estimation of unobserved incidence from diagnosis registration. A methodology for solving the above problem is described permitting incidence estimates which are of low sensitivity to random variations in empirical data. The methodology has been applied for estimation of the morbidity dynamics among emergency workers from 1986 to 1993 in respect to 12 classes of diseases. The results show insignificant changes during this period for “Infections and parasitic diseases”, four times increase for “Psychiatric disorders” and almost ten times increase for “Nervous system and sensoric organs diseases”. The estimated changes are less than the changes in the “observed morbidity” for this classes because of the “accumulated morbidity” effect.

Key words
Models for assessing morbidity, consequences of the Chernobyl accident, liquidators, dynamics of morbidity, annual morbidity, infectious and parasitic diseases, mental disorders, diseases of the nervous system and sensory organs.


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