Methodological recommendations on risk estimation as applied to the situations after nuclear accidents testing or accidents

"Radiation and Risk" 1996. vol. 8, pp. 133-158
The project is published in the order of discussion.


Golikov V.Ya., Demin V.F., Ivanov V.K., Ivanov S.I., Kovalev E.E., Osechinsky I.V., Rezontov V.A., Smorodina N.V.


The methodological recommendations for risk analysis are applied to the assessment of the consequences of radiation exposure of the population as a result of nuclear accidents or tests and protective measures taken. They include the definition of risk indicators for different purposes at the cohort (individual) and population levels and the corresponding calculation formulas. Both radiation and non-radiation risks are considered. Radiation risk assessment is based on a general theoretical and probabilistic risk analysis methodology, primary models of radiation risk and background medical and demographic data. The latter serve as an internal base of the necessary source data. Absorbed or equivalent doses of population at the cohort level are necessary external source data. In preparing the recommendations, relevant materials of competent international and national organizations (ICRP, UNSCEAR, NCRH UK, BEIR USA, CEPN France, RNRC, etc.) were used. The recommendations provide for all possible “scenarios” of exposure: one-time, chronic with any possible time dependence, and mixed. Recommendations may find more general application: for assessing health status in risk indicators and the dependence of the values ​​of the latter on the considered risk factors, local conditions, etc. One of the main goals of this work is to prepare a methodological basis for the development of a computerized data bank on risk analysis.

Key words
Guidelines, risk analysis, impact assessment, radiation exposure, population, nuclear accidents, testing, protective measures.


1. The concept of living in the areas affected by the Chernobyl accident, the working group of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR at hand. S. Belyaev, approved by the Decree of the Cabinet of Ministers of the USSR on April 8, 1991 No. 164.

2. Law of the RSFSR "On the social protection of citizens exposed to radiation as a result of the disaster at the Chernobyl NPP", May 15, 1991, Moscow.

3. The concept of rehabilitation of the population and the normalization of the ecological, sanitary and hygienic, biomedical and socio-economic situation in the settlements of the Altai Territory located in the zone of influence of nuclear tests at the Semipalatinsk test site was developed by the working group of the State Committee Chernobyl of the Russian Federation (led by Gordeev KI) and working RNCRH group (leader V. Demin), 1993

4. The concept of protection of the population and economic activity in the territories subjected to radioactive contamination was prepared by the IRG GCSEN RF, approved by the RNRC, 1993

5. The concept of radiation, medical, social protection and rehabilitation of the population of the Russian Federation exposed to accidental exposure, project, RNRC working group, head Tsyb AF, 1995

6. International Commission on Radiological Protection, Recommendations of the Commission - 1990, ICRP publication 60, Ann. ICRP, 21, N 1-3, 1991.

7. Principles for Intervention for Protection of the Public in a Radiological Emergency, ICRP, Publication N 63, Pergamon Press, 1993.

8. Nuclear Energy Agency, protection of the population in the event of a nuclear accident: A Basis for Intervention, Report from a NEA Expert Group, OECD/NEA (1990).

9. Bykov A.A., Demin V.F. Theoretical-probabilistic approach to assessing the damage to public health from radiation exposure: Preprint IAE-4334/3. - Moscow: Central Research Institute Atomform, 1986.

10. Bykov A.A., Demin V.F. Assessment of genetic consequences and total radiological damage to public health based on a probabilistic approach: Preprint IAE-4806/3. - Moscow: Central Research Institute Atomform, 1989.

11. Bykov A.A., Demin V.F., Kozeltsev M.L., Nesterova S.I. On the principles and indicators of a generalized economic analysis of environmental activities // Economic evaluations in the system of environmental protection of the USSR. - Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1988. - p. 19.

12. Bykov A.A., Demin V.F. Probabilistic approach to assessment of radiation risk, in proceed. of an intern. Conf. "Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Risk Management" PSA'87, v. 3, p. 927, Verlag TUV Rheinland, 1987.

13. Problems associated with the development of an indicator of harm from radiation exposure to ionizing radiation, Publication No. 27, ICRP, Moscow, Energoatomizdat, 1981.

14. Quantitative Bases for Developing a Unifed Index of Harm, ICRP Publication 45, Pergamon Press, 1985.

15. National Academy of Sciences, 1980, The effects on Population of Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation, BEIR III Report, Washington.

16. Sources, Effects and Risks of Ionizing Radiation, UNSCEAR 1988 Report to the General Assembly, UN, New York, 1988.

17. Health effects of exposure to low levels of ionizing radiation (BEIR V), National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1990.

18. Komarov Yu.M., Shkolnikov V.M. Medico-geographical analysis of mortality abroad. Results of science and technology, series "Medical Geography". - M.: VINITI, 1989. - T. 16.

19. Stokell P.J., Robb J.D., Crick M.J., Muirhead C.R. SPIDER-1: Software for evaluating the detriment associated with radiation exposure, NRPB - R261, NRPB, UK, 1993.

20. NCRP. Induction of thyroid cancer by ionising radiation. Bethesda MD, NCRP Report N 80, 1985.

21. Belyaev S.T., Demin V.F., Ya.N.Shoikhet and others. Radiation risk assessment for the population of the Altai Territory from nuclear tests at the Semipalatinsk test site, Bulletin of the scientific program "Semipalatinsk test site - Altai, No. 4, 1994, NIIRMEP, Barnaul.

22. Sources and effects of ionizing radiation, UNSCEAR 1994 report to the General Assembly, UN, New York, 1994.

23. Golikov V.Ya., Demin V.F., Keirim-Markus I.B. and others. The concept of radiation risk prediction and planning assistance to the population of individual territories of the Altai Territory exposed to radiation as a result of nuclear tests at the Semipalatinsk test site, Bulletin of the scientific program "Semipalatinsk test site / Altai, N 3, 1995, NIIRMEP, Barnaul, hp. 23-41.

24. Non-carcinogenic radiation risk based on the results of epidemiological studies (Hiroshima and Nagasaki).

Full text article (in Russian)