Radiation epidemiology of cancer and non-cancer diseases of the thyroid gland in Russia after the Chernobyl catastrophe: forecast and risk assessment

"Radiation and Risk", 1995. Special Issue 1, pp.6-29


Ivanov V.K., Tsyb A.F., Matveenko E.G., Parshkov E.M., Maksyutov M.A., Gorsky A.I., Pitkevich V.A., Stepanenko V.F., Rastopchin E. .M., Korelo AM, Chekin S.Yu., Khvostunov I.K., Shakhtarin V.V., Gorobets V.F., Matyash V.A., Sevankayev V.A., Ryvkin V.B. ., Proshin A.D.1, Dorokhov V.V.1, Litvinov B.K.1, Kvitko B.I.1, Leshakov S.Yu.2, Efendiyev V.A.2, Borovikova M.P.2,Shiryaev V.I.2
Medical Radiological Research Center RAMS, Obninsk
1Health Administration of the Bryansk region
2Health Administration of the Kaluga Region Administration


In the present work, for the first time, the problem of thyroid cancer in connection with the Chernobyl disaster is considered on the basis of a systematic approach. Three main tasks were solved: prediction of the immediate and long-term effects of radiation exposure associated with the induction of thyroid malignant neoplasms; determination of radiation risks of non-cancer diseases of the thyroid gland; radiation risk assessment of thyroid cancers.

As a result of the prognostic estimates made, in particular, it was shown that the attributive lifetime risk for children from the territories contaminated with radionuclides in the Bryansk region will be 44% (i.e., almost every second cancer will be due to radiation), for the children of Kaluga region 26%.

In the cohort of children and adolescents from the Kaluga region (5694 people) who have estimated individual doses of thyroid gland radiation based on direct radiometry performed in 1986, the radiation risk factors for non-cancer thyroid diseases were obtained. The estimated, in particular, estimate of the excess relative risk ratio at a dose of 1 Gy, equal to 0.2 (0.06; 0.34), is in good agreement with the data published on the basis of the AHS cohort (Japan).

For the first time, a case-control technology has been implemented to determine the radiation risks of the incidence of thyroid cancer in children and adolescents (at the time of the disaster) living in the Bryansk region. It is shown that the ratio of the relative risk of thyroid cancer in radionuclide contaminated western regions of the Bryansk region at a dose of 1 Gy is 7.15 (1.52; 33.8).

The obtained fundamental radiation and epidemiological data indicate the need for long-term monitoring of persons exposed to radiation after the Chernobyl disaster.

Key words
Thyroid cancer, radionuclide-contaminated areas, Chernobyl disaster, cohort of children and adolescents, individual radiation doses, radiation risk coefficients, assessment, relative relative risk ratio, AHS cohort, radiation morbidity risks.

Introduction pp.4-5 (in Russian)

Part 1. Forecast of the incidence of thyroid cancer for residents polluted radionuclides of the Kaluga and Bryansk regions pp.6-16 (in Russian)

Part 2. Determination of radiation risk factors for non-cancer diseases thyroid gland pp.17-24 (in Russian)

Part 3. Preliminary assessment of the radiation risks of thyroid cancer glands in children and adolescents of the Bryansk region using case-control technology” pp.25-29 (in Russian)


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