Leukoses and other hemoblastoses in Bryansk region of Russia after the Chernobyl accident

"Radiation and Risk", 1995, vol. 6, pp. 184-200


Osechinsky I.V., Martirosov A.R., Zingerman B.V., Popov V.Yu., Shorin D.Yu., Sevastyanova M.G., Mescheryakova L.M., Sidorovich G.I., Proshin A.D., Milyutina G.I.
Gematologic Scientific Center of RAMS; Department of Health, Administration of Bryansk Region


The morbidity with leukoses and other hemoblastoses in 6 south-west districts of Bryansk oblast (territory of observation), the remaining 21 districts (territory of comparison) and Bryansk was compared. In the post-accidental period a positive trend of morbidity in the oblast as to acute leukoses and non-Hodgkin’ diseases was determined. The relative risk of morbidity on the territory of observation does not deviate from 1,0 and exceeds 1,0 in Bryansk. The morbidity indices of acute leukoses and non-Hodgkin’ diseases among children are the most high for Bryansk 3,79 and 1,90, respectively; for the territory of comparison 3,31 and 1,42; for the territory of observation 3,41 and 1,28. In 1986 on the territory of observation the excess of morbidity with acute leukoses (7 cases), with morbidity index of 11,95 (95% confidence interval within the limits of 5-25) was registered. The relative risk amounted to 6,13, p=0,07. In two children a diagnosis was determined before the Chernobyl accident, two children were taken ill in June, two in July and one in August. During the following 7 years the relative risk for all analyzing forms did not exceed 1,0. The Puasson probability of stochastic aggregation over 1 year (7 cases of acute leukoses) comprises 0,001. A special feature of this event was an unusual distribution of sick children on age 6 from 7 are boys. A descriptive epidemiological analysis gives no way of judging the nature of event, at the same time it is beyond reason to associate it with radiation effect. Analysis of morbidity is insufficient for determination of causal relationship between risk of arising acute leukoses and radiation effect due to the ChNPP accident.

Key words
Leukemia incidence, acute leukemia, non-Hodgkin lymphomas, relative disease risk, incidence rates, radiation exposure, Chernobyl accident.


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